The Global Nuclear Future
A sustainable and secure supply of energy is one of the great demands of our time,
as nations throughout the world work to develop reliable energy sources. While nuclear
power is only one of the many types of energy that will be employed to meet the
world’s growing energy needs and address concerns about climate change, it is the
only one that both avoids carbon emissions and is clearly sufficiently technologically
advanced to be employed on a large scale in a relatively short time-frame. The United
States currently depends on nuclear energy for 20% of its electricity and even if
our nuclear energy program is not increased significantly, other countries have
plans for rapid expansion. However, because nuclear power and nuclear weapons are
inextricably linked by the technologies that provide the infrastructure for both,
a rapid increase in the use of nuclear energy could affect global security as more
states acquire nuclear expertise and nuclear materials. The expansion of nuclear
power plants and related facilities also provides terrorist groups with an attractive
new set of targets for sabotage or theft. The renewed interest in nuclear power,
moreover, comes at a time when the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) regime that has
managed the spread of nuclear material and weapons technology is severely challenged.
The Global Nuclear Future Initiative of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences
is working to anticipate the increase in the use of nuclear energy around the world
by developing effective policies and procedures to ensure that the spread of nuclear
power does not aggravate, and in fact reduces, international security and nonproliferation
concerns. The Initiative’s leaders and advisors have identified several interconnected
issues that must be addressed simultaneously in order to arrive at pragmatic recommendations
for a sustainable new nuclear regime here and abroad.
The Initiative seeks to:
- Reduce the probability that a terrorist group could steal or acquire nuclear material
from a nuclear facility to make a weapon.
- Diminish the likelihood that new states building nuclear power plants will retain
and reprocess spent fuel materials, which could facilitate their development of
nuclear weapons.
- Bring non-proliferation and security concerns to the attention of the nuclear
industry.
- Increase the opportunities for strengthening the nonproliferation treaty regime
at the 2010 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference and beyond.
- Identify possible “game changers” that would have a tremendous impact but cannot
be extrapolated from current trends.
While discussions of nuclear power have centered on issues of cost, safety and waste,
less attention has been paid to security. For instance, since it is costly and politically
difficult to change a reactor design once it is chosen or close an enrichment facility
once it is constructed, there is an urgent need to evaluate proposals to build proliferation-
and theft-resistant nuclear reactors and to establish international regimes to manage
the fuel cycle. To achieve this goal, technical communities and proliferation specialists
need to be brought together to guide government and industry choices before technology
is adopted that might make it easier for countries to proliferate or for nuclear
material to be stolen.
In the last few years, growing concern about the global nuclear future has led to
the creation of various institutions and projects dealing with discrete aspects
of the nuclear issue. The Academy initiative is building a broad consortium of institutions
and individuals to contribute to this effort.
The Academy is in a unique position to address this critical challenge. Taking advantage
of its convening power, and the wide range of its Fellows’ interests, the Academy
is bringing together constituencies that historically have not communicated with
each other—from government policy makers to the heads of non-governmental organizations,
from nuclear engineers to industry leaders, from social scientists to nonproliferation
experts—to create a new global architecture for the nuclear future, accounting for
new players, varying interests, and changing realities. Because many of the crucial
decisions that will shape the nuclear future will not be made by the United States
alone, the Academy has included experts from overseas, including participants from
foreign governments and international organizations, to participate in this work.
Since the Academy is not identified with a particular stance on nuclear questions,
yet has a fifty-year-old tradition of work on arms control, it offers a neutral
forum for discussing these issues. Moreover, by hosting a series of activities over
the long term, the Academy can foster a sustained community of experts to evaluate
international policy alternatives.
Leadership
The Global Nuclear Future Initiative is directed by Steven Miller (Harvard University)
and Scott Sagan (Stanford
University), along with research coordinator Thomas Isaacs (Stanford University and
Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory) and senior advisor Robert Rosner (University of Chicago). The Initiative’s
advisory committee includes Albert Carnesale (University of California, Los Angeles), Richard
Meserve (Carnegie Institution
for Science), George Perkovich (Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace), and John Rowe (Exelon Corporation).
The Academy’s Committee on International Security Studies chaired by Carl Kaysen
(MIT) and John
Steinbruner (University
of Maryland) is providing overall advice and guidance.
Activities
The Academy is undertaking the following activities to achieve the Initiative’s
goals:
- Focused Workshops. The Academy is convening a series of focused workshops
both in the United States and abroad. These deal with the physical protection of
materials and plants, nuclear waste, reforms to the international regulatory regime,
and industry perspectives on these issues. These workshops have the additional goal
of building networks of professionals and scholars from various disciplines in the
United States and abroad.
- Impact. The Academy will work to widely disseminate in Washington, D.C.
and abroad the policy proposals and recommendations generated by the Initiative.
Members of the Initiative will present the findings at international forums such
as the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), at scholarly and public policy conferences at
major universities, to diplomats and members of the US Congress, and meetings hosted
by organizations such as the
World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO).
- Publications. The Academy will publish the findings in a series of policy
briefings. The Academy will also publish a special double issue of its journal Dædalus
on the Global Nuclear Future in 2009 to engage government leaders around the world
as they prepare for the 2010 Review Conference for the NPT. The special issue will
collect conceptual insights and policy recommendations in a format intended to be
read by a wide, non-expert audience. They will include essays from more than 20
authors, among them Mohammed Shaker (Egyptian
Council for Foreign Affairs), Richard Meserve, John Rowe, Anne Lauvergeon
(Areva) and
Sam Nunn (Nuclear Threat Initiative).
The Academy is grateful to the
William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and to the Carnegie Corporation of New York for supporting
this project. The statements and views expressed here and in any publications of
this project are solely the responsibility of the authors.
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