The Global Nuclear Future

A sustainable and secure supply of energy is one of the great demands of our time, as nations throughout the world work to develop reliable energy sources. While nuclear power is only one of the many types of energy that will be employed to meet the world’s growing energy needs and address concerns about climate change, it is the only one that both avoids carbon emissions and is clearly sufficiently technologically advanced to be employed on a large scale in a relatively short time-frame. The United States currently depends on nuclear energy for 20% of its electricity and even if our nuclear energy program is not increased significantly, other countries have plans for rapid expansion. However, because nuclear power and nuclear weapons are inextricably linked by the technologies that provide the infrastructure for both, a rapid increase in the use of nuclear energy could affect global security as more states acquire nuclear expertise and nuclear materials. The expansion of nuclear power plants and related facilities also provides terrorist groups with an attractive new set of targets for sabotage or theft. The renewed interest in nuclear power, moreover, comes at a time when the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) regime that has managed the spread of nuclear material and weapons technology is severely challenged.

The Global Nuclear Future Initiative of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences is working to anticipate the increase in the use of nuclear energy around the world by developing effective policies and procedures to ensure that the spread of nuclear power does not aggravate, and in fact reduces, international security and nonproliferation concerns. The Initiative’s leaders and advisors have identified several interconnected issues that must be addressed simultaneously in order to arrive at pragmatic recommendations for a sustainable new nuclear regime here and abroad.

The Initiative seeks to:

• Reduce the probability that a terrorist group could steal or acquire nuclear material from a nuclear facility to make a weapon.
• Diminish the likelihood that new states building nuclear power plants will retain and reprocess spent fuel materials, which could facilitate their development of nuclear weapons.
• Bring non-proliferation and security concerns to the attention of the nuclear industry.
• Increase the opportunities for strengthening the nonproliferation treaty regime at the 2010 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference and beyond.
• Identify possible “game changers” that would have a tremendous impact but cannot be extrapolated from current trends.

In the last few years, growing concern about the global nuclear future has led to the creation of various institutions and projects dealing with discrete aspects of the nuclear issue. The Academy initiative is building a broad consortium of institutions and individuals to contribute to this effort.

The Academy is in a unique position to address this critical challenge. Taking advantage of its convening power, and the wide range of its Fellows’ interests, the Academy is bringing together constituencies that historically have not communicated with each other—from government policy makers to the heads of non-governmental organizations, from nuclear engineers to industry leaders, from social scientists to nonproliferation experts—to create a new global architecture for the nuclear future, accounting for new players, varying interests, and changing realities. Because many of the crucial decisions that will shape the nuclear future will not be made by the United States alone, the Academy has included experts from overseas, including participants from foreign governments and international organizations, to participate in this work. Since the Academy is not identified with a particular stance on nuclear questions, yet has a fifty-year-old tradition of work on arms control, it offers a neutral forum for discussing these issues. Moreover, by hosting a series of activities over the long term, the Academy can foster a sustained community of experts to evaluate international policy alternatives.

Leadership

The Global Nuclear Future Initiative is directed by Steven Miller (Harvard University) and Scott Sagan (Stanford University), along with research coordinator Thomas Isaacs (Stanford University and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) and senior advisor Robert Rosner (University of Chicago). The Initiative’s advisory committee includes Albert Carnesale (University of California, Los Angeles), Richard Meserve (Carnegie Institution for Science), George Perkovich (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), and John Rowe (Exelon Corporation).

The Academy’s Committee on International Security Studies chaired by Carl Kaysen (MIT) and John Steinbruner (University of Maryland) is providing overall advice and guidance.

Activities

The Academy is undertaking the following activities to achieve the Initiative’s goals:

• Focused Workshops. The Academy is convening a series of focused workshops both in the United States and abroad. These deal with the physical protection of materials and plants, nuclear waste, reforms to the international regulatory regime, and industry perspectives on these issues. These workshops have the additional goal of building networks of professionals and scholars from various disciplines in the United States and abroad.
• Impact. The Academy will work to widely disseminate in Washington, D.C. and abroad the policy proposals and recommendations generated by the Initiative. Members of the Initiative will present the findings at international forums such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), at scholarly and public policy conferences at major universities, to diplomats and members of the US Congress, and meetings hosted by organizations such as the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO).
• Publications. The Academy will publish the findings in a series of policy briefings. The Academy will also publish a special double issue of its journal Dædalus on the Global Nuclear Future in 2009 to engage government leaders around the world as they prepare for the 2010 Review Conference for the NPT. The special issue will collect conceptual insights and policy recommendations in a format intended to be read by a wide, non-expert audience. They will include essays from more than 20 authors, among them Mohammed Shaker (Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs), Richard Meserve, John Rowe, Anne Lauvergeon (Areva) and Sam Nunn (Nuclear Threat Initiative).