Research Paper

The Altered Nuclear Order in the Wake of the Russia-Ukraine War

Rebecca Davis Gibbons, Stephen Herzog, Wilfred Wan, and Doreen Horschig
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American Academy of Arts and Sciences

Table of Contents

Nuclear Disarmament and Russia’s War on Ukraine: The Ascendance and Uncertain Future of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

More Nuclear Proliferation or More Nuclear Disarmament?
State-Level Evidence
The Public and Nuclear Disarmament
The Nuclear Use Question
The TPNW in a World of Increased Nuclear Salience

Wither Nuclear Risk Reduction?

Risk Reduction Concepts and Challenges
Risk Reduction in Practice
The Post–February 24, 2022, Landscape
Recommendations to Take Risk Reduction Forward

A Turn to Nuclear Counterproliferation: Consequences of a Deteriorating Nonproliferation Regime

Traditional Nonproliferation Tools
Preventing Horizontal Proliferation
Quantitative Trends and Concerns in Counterproliferation
Conclusion and Policy Implications