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Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age

2016–Present

Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age is a new initiative, chaired by Professor Robert Legvold and Professor Christopher Chyba, which will explore and address the greatest challenges that the current nuclear age presents.

This study builds upon the premise that the foundations and principles that defined the nuclear order after WWII and during the Cold War have shifted and continue to evolve, presenting new challenges as they do so.

The legitimacy of existing, institutions such as the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty and the Arms Control architecture is rapidly eroding because of the inability of these institutions to respond effectively to the nuclear challenges of today.

The Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty has been designed in such a way that its gatherings do not allow for honest and effective cooperation among the member-states. In addition, the vagueness of some of its language continues to offer reasons for opportunistic interpretation and disputes among its members-states.

Progress in nuclear arms control has also dramatically stalled and if possible even reversed. As nuclear powers continue to invest heavily in the maintenance and modernization of their nuclear forces, the nuclear postures of both small and large states have recently become far more bellicose than those of the Cold War era. Some nuclear weapons states seem willing to revise their defense postures to accommodate a more explicit use of nuclear weapons in warfare. And both established and emerging countries increasingly see a direct role for nuclear weapons in controlled, limited, and short-term warfare.

In addition new security challenges like the ones posed by non-state actors demand innovative solutions. Finally, the consensus over the norms and values that traditionally underpinned the relations among nuclear weapons states and between nuclear weapons states and the rest of the international community is rapidly deteriorating.

These multi-faceted challenges demand a multi-lateral and inter-disciplinary approach that takes into account the changing global landscape, the technological developments in the nuclear field as well as in other related areas such as in the cyber and in the space domain.

Project at a Glance

The Academy plans to launch a three-year initiative that has one overarching goal: to articulate a new framework for governing relations among the existing nine nuclear weapons states (with a particular attention to strengthening strategic stability within the two critical nuclear triangles: China, the U.S., and Russia as well as India, Pakistan, and China).

In order to achieve such a goal, in the course of this initiative we will:

  1. Identify the four or five major dangers generated by the dynamics of a multipolar nuclear world—dangers that pose the greatest danger of inadvertent nuclear war;
  2. Offer alternative approaches to addressing each of these dangers and then facilitate debate around them in a variety of fora involving the different relevant communities in the U.S. and abroad; and
  3. Encourage and then assist policy makers, Congress, the analytical community, and expert portions of the media to think systematically about a world that is now multipolar.

Project Activities

This project, as it is currently conceived, is a 3-year-long initiative that will explore and address the greatest challenges that the current nuclear age presents. In the first phase, the project will focus on developing the conceptual framework by which the many different dimensions of this new nuclear era can be understood in integral form. A working group composed of policy-makers and young and established scholars will convene twice at the House of the Academy to begin hammering out this framework. Between the two plenary meetings, additional smaller working groups and commissioned papers will be organized to probe key aspects. In the second phase, the Academy will publish the main findings and ideas, including ways by which the challenges of this new nuclear age might be addressed, that have emerged from the working group discussions in a special issue of Dædalus as well as one or more briefing papers for a policy audience. Finally in the third phase, the project will engage in extensive policy outreach, domestically and internationally, to involve audiences and stakeholders in nuclear and non-nuclear weapons states.

The new project hosted the first meeting of its working group on September 18–19, 2016. The group discussed a set of commissioned papers and developed an agenda for engaging with policy-makers and the public. The meeting began with a public screening of the new documentary, Command and Control: The unknown story of the day our luck almost ran out, in advance of its local theatrical release and PBS broadcast, followed by a discussion with nuclear experts.

On December 19–20, 2016, the Academy convened a second working group meeting. The participants discussed three commissioned papers that investigate the changing relationships among nuclear weapons states. The participants noted that the destabilizing effects of new military capabilities, such as cyber and hypersonic weapons, coupled with growing mistrust among nuclear weapons states, are undermining the stability of the global nuclear order as it was originally conceived and leading dangerously to situations where the use of nuclear warheads might become a possibility. The discussions focused on three main questions: Under what conditions and based on what factors is the use of nuclear weapons possible today? What risks does the current global nuclear order (or disorder) face? How can these nuclear risks be managed and minimized? The working group identified next steps for the project, which include a special issue of Dædalus and a policy publication on the future of the U.S. nuclear posture in a changing global nuclear order.

On December 18–19, 2017, the Academy convened a third working group meeting. The discussion centered around a set of core issues, including the consequences if key aspects of strategic arms control were to collapse; whether and how nuclear trilemmas may introduce new threats to new strategic instability; and how technology developments, including non-nuclear technologies, may affect the risk for potential nuclear escalation. Working group members also discussed areas for policy focus over the life of the project.

Project Leadership

Project Chairs

  • Christopher Chyba
    Princeton University
  • Robert Legvold
    Columbia University

Steering Committee

  • Thomas J. Christensen
    Princeton University
  • Lynn Eden
    Stanford University
  • Steven E. Miller
    Harvard University
  • Janne Nolan
    The George Washington University
  • Scott Sagan
    Stanford University
  • Jon Wolfsthal
    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Harvard University

Working Group

  • James M. Acton
    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Mark Bell
    University of Minnesota
  • Ambassador Linton Brooks
    Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
  • M. Taylor Fravel
    MIT
  • Sumit Ganguly
    Indiana University, Bloomington
  • Francis J. Gavin
    Johns Hopkins SAIS
  • Michael Krepon
    Stimson Center
  • Hans Kristensen
    Federation of American Scientists
  • Jessica Tuchman Mathews
    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Nicholas Miller
    Dartmouth College
  • Steven E. Miller
    Harvard University
  • Vipin Narang
    MIT
  • Janne Nolan
    The George Washington University
  • Olga Oliker
    Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
  • George Perkovich
    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Ambassador Steven Pifer
    Brookings Institution
  • William Potter
    James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey
  • Mira Rapp-Hooper
    Yale University;
    Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
  • Scott Sagan
    Stanford University
  • Michael Swaine
    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Nina Tannenwald
    Brown University
  • Jane Vaynman
    Temple University
  • Keren Yarhi-Milo
    Princeton University

Project Staff

  • Francesca Giovannini
  • Kathryn Moffat

Related Publications

Published from   thru      Type:    
 Title and SynopsisTo Order
Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age: U.S. and Russian Nuclear Concepts, Past and Present
American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2018

Linton Brooks, Francis J. Gavin and Alexei Arbatov, authors
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Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age: U.S. and Russian Nuclear Concepts, Past and Present

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