Across many dimensions, U.S.-China relations are under strain. Amid ongoing debates about tariffs, rare earth minerals, technology, and Taiwan, one challenge stands out: nuclear risk fueled by increasing nuclear competition and a lack of risk reduction mechanisms. China currently has an estimated six hundred nuclear warheads and that number is expected to reach one thousand by 2030. At the same time, global nuclear risks are rising as the arms control regime weakens, with countries withdrawing from treaties and the last remaining U.S.-Russia treaty set to expire in February 2026. Adding to the tension, in October 2025, President Donald Trump ordered the resumption of nuclear weapons testing prior to a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jingping. Without an arms control agreement or risk reduction measures between the United States and China, experts warn of a potential arms race and the risk that overreaction or crisis escalation could lead to nuclear conflict.
