The Perils of Complacency
A Report Brief (online below, in PDF, and in print) and a Full Report (in PDF) are available.
This report and its supporting data were finalized in April 2020. While some new data have been released since then, the report’s findings and recommendations remain valid. Please note that Figure 1 was based on NSF analysis, which used existing OECD purchasing power parity (PPP) to convert U.S. and Chinese financial data. OECD adjusted its PPP factors in May 2020. The new factors for China affect the curves in the figure, pushing the China-U.S. crossing point toward the end of the decade. This development is addressed in Appendix B.